Course

Investment Evaluation and Decision Analysis Best Practices - Selecting the Right Projects the Right Way to Maximize Value

Level: Intermediate

Facilitators:

Andrew Thrift, Independent Decision Professional
Daniel Schneider, Horizon Environmental
Jim Spanier, Independent Consultant
Simon Pritchard, Strategic Decision Partners

Abstract:

To build better mines faster, organizations need to make high-quality investment decisions. This course focuses on how to develop rigorous, timely investment proposals that support confident decision-making, while avoiding common traps such as overreliance on gut instinct or getting stuck in endless analysis.

Investment decisions can have a significant positive or negative impact on enterprise value. High-quality decisions depend on an integrated, structured and non-bureaucratic approach to framing, conducting and communicating evaluations. This approach has been applied in large, capital-intensive organizations, including global mining and energy companies.

The course covers the fundamentals of disciplined investment evaluation, including:

• Framing decisions and defining the counterfactual (what happens if we do not proceed)

• Specifying assumptions and input quality, including ranges and uncertainty

• Evaluating alternatives using NPV and expected value

• Assessing uncertainty using decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation

• Interpreting results and communicating implications for decision-makers

Participants will also develop a decision analysis mindset by creating a decision sketch for a real-world problem of their choice. This rapid prototype technique focuses attention on the most critical elements of a decision, allowing analytical and stakeholder engagement effort to be allocated efficiently. Optional virtual meetings before and after the course will be available for participants seeking coaching on developing their decision sketch.

From project trade-off studies to allocating capital across a project portfolio, a structured and pragmatic decision analysis approach helps reduce costly biases and align teams. These methods are intuitive, low-cost, and widely used in other capital-intensive industries, yet mining has not fully benefited from them. Improving decision quality is a powerful lever for creating value across an organization.

Short Course Objectives:

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

• Frame decisions clearly and select appropriate people, processes and tools to reduce behavioural bias and promote team alignment

• Move beyond false precision by characterizing the uncertainty that matters for a decision, using ranges, expected value and scenarios

• Establish an investment evaluation system that integrates robust economic analysis with non-financial considerations, supported by candid dialogue about risk and uncertainty, to enable senior leaders to make investment decisions with confidence

Target Audience:

• Professionals who lead or sponsor major studies and investment decisions

• Asset and operations managers responsible for value, risk, and lifecycle performance

• Project managers and engineers involved in capital planning, trade-off studies, and execution

• Finance and commercial professionals who evaluate, assure, or approve business cases

• Functional leaders who prepare, review, or endorse major investment requests

• Technical specialists who contribute expert judgment to complex strategic or operational decisions

About the instructors:

Andrew Thrift, P.Eng. is a mining sustainability and decision science leader with extensive experience in major project management, permitting, community and Indigenous relations, closure and risk management. As Director, Sustainability, Risk & Decision Quality at Teck Resources he pioneered the company’s decision quality practice. He has worked across senior and junior mining companies, government and consulting. Andrew holds Bachelors and Masters degrees in Mining Engineering from the University of British Columbia and is a Professional Engineer registered with Engineers and Geoscientists of British Columbia and a Society of Decision Professionals Lead Practitioner.

Daniel Schneider is an independent environmental scientist, project manager, and decision professional with over 20 years of experience leading diverse mining and environmental projects across Western Canada, Alaska, and Western Australia. Daniel combines decision science, project management, and facilitation skills to support teams to plan projects with high uncertainty and hidden complexity, when creative thinking is required to shape the right project scope. He is a Practitioner with Society of Decision Professionals

Jim Spanier has held senior positions in finance and project management during his 35+ year career. His roles have spanned three continents (North America, South America, Australia) and four industries (banking, electric power, mining, petroleum). Jim has utilized Decision Quality for over 20 years in major and mega capital projects as well as M&A transactions, principally at BHP. He is a Society of Decision Professionals Lead Practitioner, holds an MBA in Finance and International Business (NYU-Stern) and a Project Management Professional (PMP) certification. Jim is currently a part-time consultant at Bedrock-Service which provides project management solutions for clients worldwide.

Simon Pritchard advises C-suite executives and boards on growing enterprise value through disciplined investment systems and decision making under uncertainty. His work focuses on improving how major capital and strategic decisions are framed, evaluated, and governed in complex organizations. Simon spent 21 years with BHP working in strategic decision making, mining operations, and economics, supporting multi-billion dollar capital investments and transactions across the mining, infrastructure, and energy sectors globally. He holds a Bachelor of Mechanical Engineering with first class honours, a Master of Engineering, and an MBA from Melbourne Business School where he graduated Dux. He is also a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.